Home Price Predictions for 2023 from Top Economists

If you're thinking about moving, don't let worries about a housing market crash hold you back. The data and the experts agree: home prices are likely to finish the year strong.

Despite the speculation of potential price drops of 5%, 10%, or even 20% this year, such declines have not materialized. The primary contributing factor is the insufficient supply of homes for sale. The high demand for homes outweighs the available inventory, preventing prices from decreasing.

To show that home prices have not crashed in 2023, let's review the latest forecasts from several experts.

Most Experts Project Home Prices Will Net Positive this Year

Most industry experts agree that home prices will continue to appreciate in 2023. The graph below shows the latest year-end forecasts from six different organizations:

As evident, all but one forecast predicts positive national home prices for this year. This is noteworthy as it indicates a prevailing optimism among the majority regarding the growth of home prices.

If you remain concerned about the single red bar indicating an overall price decrease for the year, consider this perspective: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) foresees only a minor decline, far from the substantial crash that headlines had anticipated. Moreover, when you combine the projections from all six sources, the collective expectation is for prices to register approximately 3.3% positive growth for the year.

If the insights from these six organizations aren't sufficient to alleviate your concerns about a significant price decline, here's another factor to take into account. Among the six forecasts featured in the graph is the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) by Pulsenomics. This survey amalgamates responses from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. The HPES reveals that the collective consensus of all 100 experts involved is a 3.3% price growth expectation for the year.

When you refer to the graph presented earlier, you'll observe that the blue line, representing the average of the forecasts in the graph, stands at 3.3%. While individual forecasts may exhibit differences, both the HPES survey and the composite average of these forecasts align in presenting the same projection. A 3.3% appreciation is in stark contrast to the idea of prices declining.

Bottom Line

If concerns about home prices decreasing in the current year trouble you, take comfort in the reassurance from experts. According to the average of the most recent forecasts, home prices are expected to exhibit positive growth this year. If you have inquiries regarding the state of home prices in your specific area, consider reaching out to a real estate agent for guidance.