Is a Housing Market Crash Coming? Here’s What Experts Say

A lot of buyers are worried home prices could be headed for a crash. Others are actually hoping for one.

A recent Clever survey found 58% of Gen Z buyers are rooting for prices to fall sharply, simply because it could make homeownership feel more attainable.

So, what are the experts actually predicting?

Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts to get their take on where home prices are headed. The latest forecasts are in. And the takeaway is clear: they’re not expecting a crash – not even the most pessimistic experts.

What the Latest Forecasts Are Telling Us

The latest forecast shows home prices continuing to rise every year through at least 2030.

On average, the panel expects home prices to increase 14.7% over the next five years. But here’s what really stands out: even when you separate the experts into the most optimistic and most pessimistic groups, the pessimists still project prices will rise about 6.6% by the end of 2030 (see graph below).

The takeaway? If you’re holding off because you expect home prices to drop significantly, you could be waiting longer than you think.

Keep in mind, though, these are national forecasts. Your local market may perform a little stronger or weaker, which is why understanding what’s happening in your area matters. But the bigger picture remains the same: experts aren’t forecasting a crash, and historically, home prices have tended to rise over time.

How the Latest Forecast Compares to Previous Quarters

Here’s something you may not realize. This survey is updated four times a year, which gives us a chance to see how expert expectations are changing over time.

A year ago, the panel projected home prices would rise 2.1% this year. Today, that forecast has increased to 2.5%, meaning experts have actually become slightly more optimistic about the near-term market. And that’s not the only change. The outlook for the years ahead has shifted, too (see graph below):

Looking ahead to 2027 through 2029, expectations have cooled slightly. The panel is now forecasting a little less price growth in each of those years than it did a year ago, reflecting some of the challenges and uncertainty affecting today’s housing market.

But the bigger takeaway hasn’t changed: home prices are still expected to rise each year. The pace of growth may be slower, but the forecast still points upward.

Slower price growth isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it can be a sign the housing market is returning to a more normal, sustainable pace after several unusual years.

Some years may see a little more growth and others a little less. But one thing hasn’t changed: the forecast continues to show home prices rising.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

Percentages tell part of the story, but what really matters is what those numbers could mean for you in actual dollars.

Take a $400,000 home purchased in January. Based on the panel’s latest forecast, that home could gain roughly $58,000 in value over the next five years from price appreciation alone (see graph below):

That’s real wealth you could be building through homeownership while others wait for a major price drop that experts aren’t forecasting. And if prices continue to rise as projected, waiting could mean paying more for the same home down the road.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re worried about a housing crash or waiting for prices to come down, the latest forecasts point in the same direction: home prices are expected to keep rising, just at a more moderate pace.

Let’s connect and look at what the numbers are showing in our local market and what they could mean for your next move.